中西经济周期理论研究评价与思考

Consideration and Review on the Theory of Business Cycle

从古典型周期理论到增长型周期理论,西方经济周期理论研究取得了丰硕成果,但还存在一些问题和不足;国内外学者对于中国经济周期问题的研究主要有两个方向:一是借鉴成熟的经济周期模型并加入特定的体制型变量进行改造,二是具体分析我国经济周期的特殊性因素。还应进一步认清我国经济的现实,构造合适的理论框架,以深入研究中国经济周期问题;尤其应借鉴古典型和增长型周期的相关理论和框架,积极探索基于市场成长背景下的经济周期模型的研究。

From classic cycle theory to growth theory,western economic cycle theory has made great progress,however,there are still problems and shortcomings.The scholars at home and abroad focus on two aspects to study China economic cycle theory such as reconstructing the theory based on mature economic cycle models and systematic variables,and analysis of the characteristics of China economic cycle.China should further clarify the reality of China＇s economy,construct rational theory framework,deepen the research on China economic cycle theory,learn classic and growth-style related cycle theory and actively explore the research on economic cycle model based on market growth background.