出口地理方向与我国全要素生产率增长——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

Export Direction and Total Factor Productivity:Based on Provincial Panel Data Analysis

本文在借鉴国外相关理论研究的基础上,通过面板单位根检验、协整检验、完全修正最小二乘估计法,实证分析了出口增长、出口方向与全要素生产率之间的关系。研究发现:从出口增长的角度看,我国单纯的出口"量"的增长没有促进我国全要素生产率的增长;从出口地理方向上看,向G8发达国家的出口没有促进全要素生产率的提高,而向G8之外其他国家的出口却推动了我国全要素生产率的增长,肯定了我国实行出口多元化政策对于全要素生产率增长和经济发展的积极意义。我国"粗放型"的经济增长方式、较低的技术吸收能力以及中西部地区出口遭遇的"门槛"效应是导致这些现象的主要原因,因此转变经济增长方式、促进市场多元化发展、提高技术吸收能力以及大力促进中西部地区的经济发展,对于全要素生产率的发展有着重要的意义。

This paper applies the panel unit root test, heterogeneous panel cointegration test, fully modified ordinary least squares to empirically analyze the relationship between export growth, export direction and total factor productivity. The empirical results show that export increase and the export to G8 countries could not improve the total factor productivity, while the export to other countries could contribute to the total factor productivity, which approves the validity of export diver- sification policy. China＇ s ＂extensive＂ mode of economic growth, low technology absorption capaci- ty and the economic ＂threshold＂ effect in central and western regions are the main causes of these phenomena. Thus, changing the mode of economic growth, diversifying the expert markets, improv- ing the technological absorptive capacity and vigorously promoting the economic development of cen- tral and western regions have important significance for the development of total factor productivity