西部地区农户资金借贷行为影响因素研究——对西部地区49个自然村调查结果的实证分析

An Analysis on the Influence Factors of Rural Households' Borrowing Behavior in the Western Region——An Empirical Study Based on 49 Villages in Western Region of China

利用2008年对西部落后地区49个村庄资金借贷现状调查的数据,对影响农户资金借贷行为的因素进行大样本考察,以期为西部经济落后地区金融体系的改良和发展提供依据和新思路。从农户资金借贷发生率、融资偏好、借贷资金用途、借贷成本等方面考察了农户的资金借贷特征。在对农户资金借贷影响因素的研究上,首先提出影响农户资金借贷行为的理论假说,再选取多元逻辑斯蒂模型作为分析工具对其进行检验。统计结果表明农户的个人因素、家庭因素、偿债能力以及对信用社的主观感受对农户的资金借贷行为有着不同程度的影响。最后针对实际情况对西部地区农村金融体系的构建提出了政策建议。

The incidence of borrowing behavior,financing preference,use of the borrowed funds and the borrowing cost are examined as the borrowing features in the study of the rural households in western region of China in this paper,by using the survey data obtained from 49 villages of the western region in year 2008.Meanwhile,the paper also verifies and analyzes the influencing factors of the rural households＇ borrowing behaviors,and finally ends with suggestions to improve the rural financing system.In the methodology part,first of all,this paper brings up the basic assumption which postulates that households are rational on borrowing behaviors,and then puts forward the assumed influencing factors based on the basic model of expected rate of return.Finally,it chooses the Multinomial Logistic Model to test whether the assumed factors have a significant impact on households＇ borrowing behaviors,and tries to give explanations to the test results.By the empirical study we can conclude that several influencing factors are found to have significant impact on the households＇ borrowing behaviors,such as individual differences,family conditions,insolvency,attitudes toward formal finance institutions,etc.Finally,this paper puts forward a series of realistic and well-founded recommendations based on the results of the study.