杉木潜在适生区及其对气候变化的响应

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Distribution of Cunninghamia lanceolata

根据杉木分布现状及特点,以我国亚热带县级驻地作为杉木的分布点资料,运用Bioclim模型对杉木在现在和未来气候变化情景下潜在适生区进行预测,结果表明:现状潜在适生区模拟结果与文献记录有较好的一致性;在CO2倍增时,极适生面积缩小,最适生区有所东移;当平均气温增加2℃时,原杉木分布的南界北移;当年平均气温增加4℃时,最适生区破碎化明显;降水量增加20%情景下,适生区局限于贵州和原杉木分布的北界地区。

The Bioclim model was applied to predict the potential distribution area for Cunninghamia lanceolata tree species under the present and coming future climate conditions based on the current distribution characteristics of this tree species and the data of the counties in the subtropical area in China as distribution sample sites.The results showed that the estimation of potential suitable distribution area of C.lanceolata was in good agreement with the documented results.The most suitable area would be shrunk,and the optimal distribution area would be moved eastward if the CO2 concentration was doubled.The southern boundary of the original distribution area of C.lanceolata would shift northward when the average temperature increased 2℃,and there would be distinct fragmentation for the optimum suitable distribution area when the average temperature increased 4℃.The suitable distribution area would be limited to Guizhou Province and the northern boundary of the original distribution area if the precipitation increased by 20%.