欧元区主权债务危机：一个理论分析框架

The Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Euro Zone:A Theoretical Framework

本文旨在建立一个欧元区成员国政府债务可持续均衡模型,根据该模型推导出四个基本命题来阐述欧元区主权债务危机爆发的内在机制。通过分析,本文认为,如果欧元区成员国债券利率大于实际经济增长率,该国债务占国内生产总值的比率将会呈现持续增长趋势;政府在资本市场的融资成本由原有债务水平和政府信誉高低决定;加入单一货币区后一国政府可维持的均衡债务水平下降;如果政府实际债务水平超过最大可维持债务水平,债务水平将呈现持续增长趋势。

This paper aims to set a theoretical model for the sovereign debt sustainability in the Euro Zone and explains the inherent mechanism that triggered the debt crisis based on the following 4 assumptions drawn from the model. First,the debt-GDP ratio will grow steadily when the debt rate exceeds the real economic growth rate. Second,the cost of financing in the market depends on the total amount of the debt and the government's reputation. Third,the sustainable balanced debt level of one country will decline after it accedes the Euro Zone. And finally,once the actual debt amount exceeds the maximum sustainable level,it will grow continuously.