企业技术创新项目风险预警系统构建研究

Study on the Construction of Risk Early Warning System for Enterprise Technological Innovation Projects

企业进行技术创新是一项高风险活动,如果创新不当或创新过程中控制不力,便会为企业带来不必要的损失。因此,构建科学的企业技术创新项目风险预警系统具有重要的现实意义。探讨在建立企业技术创新风险预警指标体系的基础上,采用基于粗糙神经网络模型的方法设计企业技术创新项目风险预警系统。该风险预警系统不仅能够提取企业技术创新项目风险的主要特征属性,减少风险预警中的信息收集成本,提高预警效率,而且能克服传统预警系统难以处理高度非线性模型、容错性差、缺少自学习能力等缺陷。理论分析和实践结果均表明所设计的技术创新项目风险预警系统具有可行性和有效性,这为企业技术创新风险管理提供了一条新的途径。

Technological innovation is a high-risk activity.If it is postponed,or terminated,or failed,or the innovation process is improperly controlled,it will cause unnecessary losses to enterprises.Therefore,it is of great significance to construct a scientific risk pre-warning system of technology innovation.In this paper,the establishment of the system based on system index and Rough ANN model will be discussed.The system can not only identify the main attributes of technological innovation risk,reduce the cost of information accumulation in risk early warning,improve the pre-warning efficiency,but also overcome many limitations of traditional warning system,including highly non-linear model,bad performances of fault tolerance,lack of self-learning,etc..Both theoretical analyses and experimental results show the feasibility and validity of the risk early warning system,pointing a new way for risk management of enterprise technological innovation.