摘要
本文运用GMM方法,从历史惯性视角,对官方储备国际货币竞争进行实证分析。经济、贸易、金融、货币稳定性和收益性是决定国际货币竞争的主要力量,国际货币竞争具有较强历史惯性。以实证模型为基础,进行四种人民币国际化情景预测。中国应及时把握经济持续增长机遇,在当前国际货币竞争中占据一席之地。基于历史惯性,人民币国际化将付出更多成本和面临更大风险。亚洲货币合作是一个"正和博弈",推行宜早不宜迟。
Using the system GMM method,from the perspective of historical inertia,the paper conducts an empirical analysis of the determinants in the international currency competition of official reserves.The economy,trade,finance,currency stability and profitability are main determinants in international currency competition,and such competition follows a strong historical inertia.Based on empirical model,predictions for the RMB internationalization are made in four kinds of scenarios.China should firmly grasp the opportunity of sustained economic growth,and gain a place in current international currency competition.In view of historical inertia,RMB internationalization will pay more costs and take greater risks.Asian monetary cooperation is a ＂win -win game＂ and should be implemented sooner than later.
出处
《上海金融》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第10期45-49,共5页
Shanghai Finance
关键词
人民币国际化
货币竞争
历史惯性
RMB Internationalization
Currency Competition
Historical Inertia
