财政农业投入与农村居民消费:理论与实证分析

Financial Investment in Agriculture and Rural Residents' Consumption:A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

财政农业投入对农村居民消费的影响在理论上具有较强的不确定性,但运用1978年～2008年的相关数据进行的实证研究表明,财政农业投入通过多元化的作用机制对促进农村居民消费、拉动内需增长、促进国民经济自主增长和良性循环具有重要的现实意义。值得注意的是,财政农业投入对农村居民消费的这种"引致效应"总体上还比较微弱,而且不同类型的财政投入对农村居民消费的影响有所不同,其中,当期的生产性投入对农村居民消费产生了"挤出"效应,滞后一期的生产性投入则对农村居民消费产生了"引致"效应,而非生产性投入对促进农村居民消费没有积极影响。

The impact of financial investment in agriculture on rural residents＇ consumption has a strong uncertainty in theory,but the empirical study using the data from 1978 to 2008 shows that financial investment in agriculture promotes rural residents＇ consumption through diversified mechanisms,which plays an important realistic role in stimulating domestic demand and promoting the autonomous growth and virtuous circle of the national economy.It is noteworthy that this kind of ＂cause＂ effect that financial investment in agriculture has on rural residents＇ consumption is still relatively weak on the whole,and different types of financial investment have different effects on rural residents＇ consumption,among which current productive investment results in ＂crowding out＂ effect on rural residents＇ consumption,and one-lagged productive investment results in ＂cause＂ effect on rural residents＇ consumption,while the unproductive investment doesn＇t show positive effects on promoting rural residents＇ consumption.