城镇化发展对农村消费增长的动态影响

The Dynamic Effect of Urbanization Development on the Consumption Growth in Rural Areas

构建反映我国城镇化与农村居民消费增长之间互动关系的VAR模型,并运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,对1990年～2008年间的相关数据进行分析。结果表明:城镇化发展对农村消费增长具有动态影响,从短期来看,城镇化对农村消费需求的增长没有形成有效的正向拉动作用,但从长期来看,城镇化对农村消费需求的增长具有显著的促进和拉动作用。这表明当前我国以城镇化拉动农村消费需求增长的政策是可行的,它有助于当前巨大的供给能力通过城镇化而与农村居民消费需求增长有效对接,促进国民经济的持续快速健康成长。

By constructing the VAR model that reflects the interaction between urbanization and the consumption growth of rural residents and using the impulse response functions and variance decomposition method,we analyse relevant data from 1990 to 2008.The results show that： the development of urbanization has a dynamic effect on rural consumption growth.In the short term,urbanization does not form an effective driving forward role in the growth of consumer demand in rural areas.But in the long run,the development of urbanization has a significant role in promoting and stimulating the growth in consumer demand in rural areas.This indicates that the policy of urbanization in our country to boost rural consumption demand growth is feasible.It makes the huge ability of current supply correspond with the growth of consumption demand in rural areas by way of urbanization,and promotes the sustainable,rapid and healthy growth of the national economy.