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可操作性地震预报:有关“为什么”和“怎么办”的几点思考 被引量:7

Operational earthquake forecasting:Some thoughts on why and how
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摘要 假设研究都市区附近断层的地震学家根据经验知识以令人信服的口吻声称,未来一周内发生一次大地震的概率要比平常的一个7天周期中发生地震的概率高出100~1000倍,那么——如果采取行动的话——民众应该采取那些防御措施呢?
出处 《国际地震动态》 2010年第10期1-6,共6页 Recent Developments in World Seismology
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参考文献8

  • 1Gerstenberger M C, Jones L M, Wiemer S. Short term aftershock probabilities: Case studies in California. Seismological Research Letters, 2007, 78:66 77; doi: 10. 1785/gssrl. 81.4.66.
  • 2Jordan T H, Chen Y-T, Gasparini P, et al. Operational earthquake forecasting: State of knowledge and guidelines for implementation. Findings and recommendations of the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection, released by the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Rome, Italy, 2 October, 2009.
  • 3Field E H, Dawson T E, Felzer K R, et al. Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2009, 99: 2053-2107; doi: 10. 1785/ 0120080049.
  • 4Southern San Andreas Working Group. Short-Term Earthquake Hazard Assessment for the San Andreas Fault in Southern California. USGS Open File Report, 1991, 91-32.
  • 5Bakun W H, Breckenridge K S, Bredehoeft J, et al. Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Scenarios and Response Plans. USGS Open File Report, 1987, 87-192.
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  • 7Michael A J. Fundamental questions of earthquake statistics, source behavior, and the estimation of earth- quake probabilities from possible foreshocks. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2010, in press.
  • 8Murphy A H. What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Weather and Forecasting, 1993, 8: 281-293.

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