耕地利用集约度变化影响因素典型相关分析

Cannonical Correlation Analysis on the Influencing Factors of the Change of Cultivated Land Intensive Use Degree

耕地利用集约度变化关系到粮食安全和经济的可持续发展。本文运用典型相关分析方法,对全国1990-2006年的耕地利用集约度变化态势及其影响因素进行了分析。研究表明:1990-2006年间,全国耕地投入强度呈现波动状态,利用程度表现频繁波动,总体上呈上升态势,利用效率呈明显的波动增长趋势;GDP、农村劳动力工价和财政支农是影响耕地投入强度的重要因素;农民文化程度、城镇化率和人均耕地面积也不同程度地影响着耕地利用集约度。基于此,提出如下政策建议:协调经济发展与耕地利用,通过合理优化农业用地结构,促进社会经济的可持续发展和土地资源可持续利用;完善耕地流转制度和农业剩余劳力流动制度,促进粮食生产规模化和机械化;提高农民文化程度,增强农民运用先进科学技术农业生产的能力;进一步加大对粮食生产的政策扶持力度,改善农业生产环境,从而促进耕地利用集约度的提高,以保障国家粮食安全。

Change of cultivated land intensive use degree is related to food security and sustainable development of economy. This paper analyzes the change of cultivated land intensive use degree from 1990 to 2006 in China and its influencing factors using canonical correlation analysis. The results show that the intensity of cultivated land input fluctuated, the degree of land utilization fluctuated frequently and the efficiency of land use increased obviously from 1990 to 2006 in the whole country. GDP, rural labor wages, financial support of agriculture are the key factors influencing the intensity of cultivated land input; farmers＇ education level, the urbanization rate and per-capita area of cultivated land also affect the degree of cultivated land intensive use to some extent. Therefore, some policy recommendations put forward by this paper are as follows： coordinate economic development and cultivated land use, and promote sustainable development of society and economy and sustainable use of land resource by reasonably optimizing the structure of agricultural land use; improve the system of cultivated land transfer and surplus agricultural labor flow, and promote the scale and mechanization of food production; raise the education level of fanners, strengthen farmers＇ agricultural production ability using advanced science and technology; ensure national food security by further increasing palicy support for food production, improve agricultural production environment and promote cultivated land intensive use degree.