中国省际层面“资源诅咒”问题的再检验

A New Empirical Study on the "Resource Curse" in China at the Provincial-level

首先提出国内关于"资源诅咒"问题实证研究的不足之处,然后在此基础上调整研究方法,采用合适的指标进行回归实验,得到以下结论:①仅从实验结果上看,"资源诅咒"问题在我国还不是很突出,导致西部发展跟不上东部的主要原因在于"地处内陆,在对外贸易中不占优势,缺乏对投资的吸引力,工业化速度远远落后于东部",而不是因为富集资源带来的各种负面影响危害过甚。之前的国内文献对"资源诅咒"在我国存在与否这样一个问题的判断大多是肯定的,这主要是由于没有在回归方程中加入区位这样一个非常显著的控制变量;②虽然数据显示的结果如前所述,但我们可以推测,一些资源开发的负面影响或者在短期内尚不能完全释放出来,或者无法反映在我们的研究中。总之实际的情况恐怕比数据分析的结果要严峻,及早进行规避是必要的。

This paper firstly put forwards the shortage of domestic empirical study about the ＂resnurce curse＂, then modifies their research method and makes a series of new regression. The paper draws conclusions as follows： ① According to the analysis results on provincial-level, the problem of ＂resource curse＂ is not so serious in China. The gap of development level between the west region and the east region in China mainly resulted from the differnce from geographical location, while not from the negative effects causing by resource enrichment. Because the west region lies in the inland of China, therefore is lack of advantage in international trade, attracting less investment. Most of previous domestic literature gave an affirmative answer to the question that if ＂resource curse＂ exists in those resource-rich provinces in China just like in those resource-rich countries in Arab World, Africa or Latin America. This is because the existing regression analysis did not take a very significant explanalory variable, geographical location, into consideration. ② Despite the outcome of regression analysis is the same as descrilbed bctore, it is easy to deduce that some negative influence of resource exploitation still exists which can not be completely uncovered by our research. Anyway, the actual situation could be more severe than which has been shown by simple data analysis, therefore it is argent and necessary to take actions to avoid ＂resource curse＂.