水权交易市场中的讨价还价问题研究

Study on the Bargaining in Water Right Trading Market

水资源短缺问题已成为影响我国社会经济发展的瓶颈问题,有必要通过水权交易市场来提高水资源配置的效益。当水市场中的买卖双方都为单人时,讨价还价是确定水权交易价格的有效途径。在进行水权交易讨价还价时,对于买卖双方来说,都有三种策略可供选择,买卖双方经过策略权衡后报出自己的价格底线从而形成讨价还价的区间。为了防止某些买卖主体故意谎报自己的底价,提出了交易双方在风险中性前提下报出实际价格底线的激励约束机制,并证明了这种机制的有效性。在讨价还价的区间范围内,建立了讨价还价的同时出价模型,避免了轮流出价带来的先动优势或者后动优势,分析了贴现率对讨价还价博弈精炼均衡的影响。最后,根据模型研究的结果,提出了对我国水权交易制度构建的一些意见。

The shortage of water resources has became a bottleneck in the development of social econnmy. It＇ s necessary to improve the revenue of water resnuree allocation. Bargain is an effective way to deeide the price of water right trade when there are just one buyer and one seller in the market. Them are three optional strategies for a buyer or a seller during the bargain process.The bargaining scale can be decided after strategies game. In order to prevent buyer ur seller who is risk-neutral from bidding untrue price, a mechanism of motivation and restriction is put forward and proved feasibly. A biddle model is proposed, which advocates bidding at the same time within the bargaining scale. And the advantage of the first move or the latter move is avoided. The effect of different discount rates on perfect equilibrium of bargaining game is analyzed. At last, some advice on system construction of water right trade is proposed according to the bargaining model.