气候变化对中国南方水稻产量的经济影响及其适应策略

Economic Analysis of Climate Change Impact on the Rice Yield in Southern China and Its Adaptive Strategy

文章通过构建经济-气候模型(简称C-D-C模型),运用计量经济模型实证分析气候变化对南方水稻产量的影响,并对未来气候变化情景的影响进行了模拟评估。结果表明,气候对南方地区水稻产量有显著负影响,且气候对各区域影响存在差异,降水对华南、华中和华东地区有负的作用,而对西南地区有一定正影响;温度对西南、华南、华东和华中地区都有负的影响,未来气候变化情景对南方水稻产量的影响以减产为主,应引起政府和农户的高度重视。最后,根据实证分析结果,提出了南方地区水稻生产适应气候变化的对策建议。

This paper made an empirical analysis of climate change impact on tile rice yield in southern China by constructing economicclimate models, and made Simulation evaluation to the impact of future climate change scenarios. The results showed that climate change had a significantly negative impact on rice yield of Southern China, and the impacts on different regions were different. Precipitation had a negative role on the southern, central and eastern regions of China, while had a positive impact on the southwest region. Temperature had a riegative impact on the southwest, southern eastern and central regions. The future climate change scenarios had a negative impact on the rice yield in the southern China and the government and farmers should pay high attention to it. Finally, the paper put forward policy proposals to the southern rice production adapting climate change on the basis of empirical results.