南京市社会经济可持续发展的水利需求仿真分析

The Water Demand Simulation Analysis for Nanjing Socio-economic Sustainable Development

水利的发展不仅与其内部的结构有关,而且还制约着国民经济的发展,影响着产业结构合理化的进程。从产业结构调整、城市化和工业化进程以及区域经济发展对水利的需求多个方面,构建了水利需求框架结构,运用系统动力学的分析方法建立了南京市社会经济发展的水利需求系统动力学模型,并进行了仿真计算,得出了2008—2020年南京市水资源需求量。据此,提出了南京市社会经济持续发展模式,在水资源利用方面应该加强引入客水资源,提高水资源利用效率,从而缓解用水紧张。

The development of water conservancy is not only related to its internal structure,but also restricts the development of national economy and affects the process of industrial structure rationalize.This article establishes the water demand frame structure from the adjustment of industrial structure,urbanization,industrialization process and regional economic development of the demand for water conservancy.By using the system dynamics,it sets up the system dynamics model for the social and economic development of water demand in Nanjing,giving the 2008—2020 water demand through the simulation calculation.Accordingly,the sustainable social and economic development mode in Nanjing is proposed,the passed by water resources should be brought in water utilization to improve water use efficiency,thus alleviating water stress.