家具产业集聚均衡性的实证分析——基于家具相关子产业省级角度的多个滞后期的研究

Furniture Industry Cluster Analysis of Empirical Equilibrium——Based on furniture-related industries in Lag period on provincial angel

选取与家具相关的5个子产业,即木质家具业、塑料家具业、金属家具业、竹藤家具业、其他家具业,结合产业组织理论结构主义学派和芝加哥学派的观点,确认决定长期家具产业集聚水平包括规模经济、行业增长、资本需求、产品差异4个因素。采集了2000～2008年的相关数据,模型建立中采用移动窗口的分析法,使用了Stepwise的回归方法,分别采用滞后期为3～7年的数据来进行实证分析。结论表明在长期的家具产业均衡性的影响因素中,规模经济对产业集聚的影响权数更大,对家具产业集聚的均衡性影响很大,超过产品差异化、行业增长、资本需求等要素的影响;滞后期短的模型也对表征规模经济的变量也有较高的回归系数,但行业增长、资本需求等因素对产业集聚的影响也显示出一定的影响力。实证结果表明家具产业集聚已近均衡,说明省级的区域家具产业集聚转移已经显现。

Furniture-related industries are selected.That is wood furniture,plastic furniture,metal furniture,bamboo furniture,other furniture industry,Combined with the theory of industrial organization,structuralism school and the Chicago School views,the decision to be confirmed that the level of concentration of long-term furniture industry include economies of scale,industry growth,capital requirements,product differentiation four factors.Data to be collected for the years 2000-2008,mobility window and stepwise regression method are used in model build,which based on lag period of 3-7datas.It proved that the impact of economies of scale of furniture weights greater than other variables in the long rum.From short-term industry growth,capital requirements and other factors have shown a certain influence in industrial cluster.Evidence shows that nearly balanced.Provincial characteristics transfer of the regional furniture industry has begun.