未来20年国际金融格局演进的推动因素与新特征

Driving forces and new features of international financial structure evolving in the next 20 years

肇始于美国的全球金融危机凸显旧有国际金融秩序的弊端,并加快了全球经济重心格局的演变,势必对未来国际金融格局产生重大影响。该文指出,受全球经济重心转移、全球化浪潮、人口老龄化差异以及技术革命推动金融周期演变这四大主要因素的推动,未来10～20年国际金融格局的新特征主要表现在:国际金融力量对比、国际移民与金融资本流动的模式将发生新变化;在金融业发展新周期中,银行业进入平稳发展阶段。

The global financial crisis that originated in the US has shown the drawbacks of the traditional international financial order,and accelerated the evolution of a global economic structure,which will definitely have an important influence on the future international financial structure.According to this paper,impacted by the four driving forces namely the transfer of global economic center,the trend of globalization,differences of population aging and technical revolution,the new features of international financial structure in the next 10-20 year will mainly include new changes in international financial balance of power,international immigration and modes of capital flow,while the banking industry will enter a stable period during the new development cycle.