基于LMDI的工业电力消费因素分解研究

Decomposition Analysis of Electricity Consumption in Chinese Industry Based on LMDI

采用LMD(ILongarithmic Mean Divisia Index)法将1998—2007年中国工业的电力消费分解为生产效应、结构效应和技术进步效应。结果表明:样本期内,中国工业电力消费增长的主要动因是生产规模的扩大,其次是经济结构的调整,而电耗强度的降低则大大延缓了电力消费量的增长。

The method of logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） was used to decompose changes in electricity consumption in Chinese industry into production effect, structure effect and intensity effect over the period of 1998-2007. The results indicate that expansion of production scale is confirmed as the dominant contributor in the rise of electricity consumption, the economy structure is another contributor, while the intensity effects greatly slows the growth of electricity consumption.