我国城镇居民家庭资产选择行为研究

Study on the Asset Selection of Urban Households in China

本文基于我国六大城市1170户家庭的调查数据,采用Probit和Tobit模型对城镇居民家庭股票市场参与和投资组合的影响因素进行了分析,主要有以下实证发现:首先,我国家庭资产结构仍是一种低层次和粗放的结构,资产结构内部仍存在着较严重的失衡现象;第二,家庭的资产选择行为并不是完全理性的,而是呈现出有限理性的特征,认知偏差和投资者情绪都对其产生重要的正向影响;第三,房产投资显著影响了家庭股票市场参与和投资组合,"替代"或者"挤出"效应明显;第四,家庭极少利用股票市场对其未来现金流所承担的风险进行对冲,且其"生命周期效应"不明显。

Based on survey data from 1170 households in six major cities in China,and applying Probity and Tobit models,this article analyzes stock market participation of urban households and the affecting factors of the portfolio.It came to several empirical findings： first,the Chinese family assets structure stays at low-level and has extensive structure,which is seriously imbalanced internally.Second,the choice of household assets is not entirely rational,but shows the feature of limited ration,and the cognitive bias and investor feelings have major and positive impact.Third,real estate investment,which has evidently ＂ alternative＂ or ＂ out＂ effect,affects the households’ stock market participation and investment portfolio significantly.Fourth,families seldom utilize the stock market as hedging to lessen the future cash flow risk and the ＂life cycle＂ effect is not obvious.