中国宏观经济指标预警信号的进一步分析(英文)

Further investigations on monitoring signals of macro-economic climate index of China

近来,Chen和Ge基于中国国家统计局公布的2008年5月至2009年4月间中国宏观经济指标预警信号,建立了一个信息系统S=(U,C∪D,V,f).在这个信息系统中,工业生产指数、固定资产投资、消费品零售总额、进出口总额、财政收入、工业企业利润、居民可支配收入、金融机构各项贷款、货币供应M2以及居民消费价格指数作为条件属性;商业周期信号指标作为决策属性.本文基于粗糙集理论对这个信息系统进行了更为深入的讨论,分析了在条件属性粒与决策属性粒之间的决策规则.对于每一个x∈U,本文得到了C→xD的支持度、强度、确定度以及覆盖度,其中C→xD是信息系统S=(U,C∪D,V,f)中由x诱导的决策规则.这些结果对中国宏观经济指标预警信号给出了一个全新的数学-逻辑分析,具有一定的理论意义.

Recently,M.Chen and Y.Ge investigated monitoring signals of macroeconomic climate index of China from 2008-05 to 2009-04.Based on these monitoring signals,they established an information system S=（U,C∪D,V,f）.In this information system,the index of industrial production,investment of fixed assets,the total retail sales of consumer goods,import and export volume,revenue,the profits of industrial enterprises,residence disposable income,financial institutions loans,money supply M2,CPI are taken as condition attributes;business cycle signal index is taken as a decision attribute.In this paper,we give further investigations for this issue.Based on the above information system S=（U,C∪D,V,f）,we analyze the decision rules between condition granules and decision granule.For each x∈U,we obtain support（resp.strength,certainty factor,coverage factor） of the decision rule C →x D,where C→x D is the decision rule induced by x in S=（U,C∪D,V,f）.Results of this paper gives new analysis of on monitoring signals of macro-economic climate index of China.