FDI与中国二元经济结构演化——一个动态实证分析的考量

FDI and the Evolution of China's Dualistic Economic Structure——An Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Inspection

FDI理论和二元经济结构理论一直以来都是国内外主流经济学者研究的热点问题。但是从理论上和实证角度把二者结合起来研究的文献并不多见。为此,本文首先从古典增长理论模型出发,论述FDI对我国二元经济结构演化的影响,理论模型研究表明,FDI在促进中国经济非农化的过程中有可能加大了农业与非农业的技术与就业差距,从而加深了二元经济程度。然后重点从实证角度、运用统计分析和因果关系检验、协整检验及修正误差模型检验等计量分析手段深入研究和检验二者的长期与短期动态均衡关系。研究结果表明,FDI在促进中国经济非农化和工业化的同时,在一定程度上却加剧了中国的二元经济程度。对此,本文在最后强调应该加大对FDI的产业调整力度、规范其投资流向,同时建立一套长效机制,实现农村生产要素的市场化与整合,充分挖掘FDI在转变农业生产方式方面的潜在作用,缩小农业与城市部门生产效率的差距。

The theory of FDI and the theory of dual economic structure has been the hot issue of domestic and international mainstream economists. But there is no much research combining the perspective of theory and empirical. Firstly, we use the classical growth theory to discusse the effext of FDI on the economic structure and the evolution of dual economic structure, theoretical models show that, FDI in promoting China^s economic conversion process may i^ncrease the agricultural and non agricultural techniques and employment gap, thus deepening the level of the dual economy and then focus on the dynamic equilibrium relationship between the them, Then, from the empirical point of view, we use statistical indicators, statistical analysis, causality test, co-integration test and revise inspection error models. The results show that, FDI promotes China^s economy and industrialization, while, to a certain extent, it has aggravated the economic characteristics of China^s dualistic. Finally, this paper concluded that FDI should increase the intensity of the industrial adjustment, regulate the flow of its investment and establish a long-term mechanism to achieve the market--~oriented factors of production in rural areas. Beside this, we should fully take the effect of FDI on the transition mode of agricultural production, exert the potential role of agriculture and narrow the gap on production efficiency between agriculture and city.