改革开放以来江苏省区域经济差异格局演化研究

STUDY ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC DISPARITY IN JIANGSU SINCE 1978

通过对改革以来江苏省65个县级单元区域经济差异格局变化进行研究表明:1978年以来江苏省区域经济总体差异呈扩大态势。根据Mann-Kendall法的突变点分析,改革开放以来江苏省区域经济差异变化划分为1978—1999年和1999—2007年两个阶段。据此,采用聚类分析对1978年、1999年和2007年江苏省区域经济差异格局变化进行研究,其中,1978年江苏省区域经济发展水平空间分布格局表现出明显的南北梯度差异,1999年江苏省经济发展水平格局变化为苏中地区向苏南地区集聚,苏北地区向苏中地区集聚的特点,2007年江苏省经济发展水平格局变为更加向苏南,尤其是向苏南东部地区集聚的特点。最后采用逐步回归分析方法,分析1978、1999和2007年影响江苏省区域经济发展水平分布格局因素的演变。

By researching the pattern changes of regional economic disparities about 65 units at the county level in Jiangsu since the reform and opening up, the paper shows that the overall regional economic difference in Jiangsu province expands rapidly since 1978. Based on Mann-Kendall method＇s mutation analysis, regional economic difference changes in Jiangsu since the reform and opening up can be divided into two phases, 1978-1999 and 1999-2007. Accordingly, by adopting cluster analysis to study the pattern changes of regional economic disparities in Jiangsu in 1978, 1999 and 2007 respectively, which, in 1978 the spatial distribution pattern on the level of regional economic development in Jiangsu manifest significant gradient differences between the north-south, in 1999 the spatial distribution pattern on the level of regional economic development in Jiangsu province change for gathering characteristics, that is center areas gather to Southern Jiangsu, and Northern Jiangsu gather to Central Jiangsu, in 2007, the pattern of economic development level in Jiangsu province changes more to the Southern Jiangsu, particularly gathering in the eastern region of the Southern Jiangsu. Finally, adopting stepwise regression analysis methods to analyze the main formation reasons evolution of the regional economic development pattern in Jiangsu province.