摘要
根据1985—2005年的统计年鉴数据,基于ArcGIS及SPSS软件平台,分析了近20年来陕西省耕地面积的总体变化趋势、空间区域差异变化;利用相关分析与主成分方法分析了驱动因子;运用相关模型,科学预测出2015年、2020年、2025年、2025年耕地的数量,提出了实现陕西省耕地可持续发展的相关对策。结果表明,近20年来,陕西省耕地数量总体上呈下降趋势,其中人口增长、社会经济发展和农业科学技术进步是主要驱动因子。
According to the statistical yearbook data of cultivated land from 1985 to 2005 in Shanxi,based on ArcGIS and SPSS software,analyzed the overall trend,different regions of space changes,driving factors by relevant analysis and principal component analysis methods of Shanxi cultivated land area.Finally,this paper scientific forecasted the cultivated land in the year of 2015,2020,2025 and 2030 with some relevant models,then put forward some measures to achieve sustainable development.The results showed that the quantity cultivated land of Shanxi Province had a general decrease in the past 20 years,the population growth,the socio-economic development and the progress of agricultural science and technology were the main driving factors.
出处
《资源开发与市场》
CAS
CSSCI
2010年第11期974-976,1008,共4页
Resource Development & Market
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40371003)
关键词
动态变化
相关系数
驱动因子
预测
陕西省
dynamic change of land
correlation coefficient
driving factor
forecast
Shanxi Province
