房地产市场预警研究——以济南市为例

Early Warning Studies of Real Estate Market in Jinan City

近几年来济南市房地产价格持续上升,房地产市场异常活跃,对济南市房地产市场的预警研究将有助于房地产的健康发展。采用主成分分析法和相关分析法选取预警指标,构建了济南市房地产市场风险预警系统,并结合μ-δ法和经验数据法划分警界,按警界划分把每个指标归入对应的预警区间,并赋予相应的警值,做出趋势分析图进行单指标预警分析和多指标综合预警分析,以此判断济南市房地产市场的运行状况及警情,提出相应的管理对策和政策建议。

As real estate prices rising in recent years,real estate market was extraordinarily active,so early warning studies was conducive to real estate develops.This paper chosed the early warning indicators by principal component analysis and correlation analysis,to construct the Jinan City real estate market risk early warning system.Combining μ-δ method and empirical data on division of police force,it classified the warning index into corresponding warning siding-to-siding block according to the divided warning,and gave the appropriate warning value.From making the trend analysis for indicators of early warning analysis of single and multi-index comprehensive early warning analysis,this paper judged the real estate market and alarm feelings in Jinan City and gave the recommend.