中国中部六省城乡人口异速生长过程分析

AN ALLOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF SIX PROVINCES' URBANIZATION IN MIDDLE CHINA

分析中国中部的江西、湖南、湖北、河南、安徽和山西6省1949-2007年的城市化进程表明,6个省区的城市化过程大致相同,呈现出＂J＂型增长态势,实际可以看成＂S＂型增长的局部形式,说明6省区的城乡人口替代过程基本具备城乡人口异速生长过程的一般规律。由于1977年以前的数据波动较大,城乡人口替代过程表现出很强的复杂性,因此,选取6省区1977年以来的城乡人口异速生长过程进行具体分析,结果显示：6省区城乡人口异速生长过程均可分为正异速生长阶段和乡村人口衰退阶段,转变年份出现在1994-2000年。不同之处在于安徽与河南两省呈现出大致相同的城乡人口替代过程,阶段转变较早;江西省和山西省相似,转变时间较晚;湖南省在转变时呈现出微小的波动;湖北省始终呈现出较强的波动状态。这种结果在理论上验证了城乡人口异速生长过程具有维度不变的性质,在实践上证明了中部六省的城市化进入了乡村人口衰退的质变阶段。

The analysis of the urbanization of six provinces in middle China during the year 1949-2007 shows that the urbanization processes of these provinces are about the same.The ＂J＂-type growth trend of urbanization,which actually can be seen as a part of an ＂S＂-type growth trend,shows that the substitution processes of urban and rural population in these provinces basically follow the general law of allometric process of the population in urban as well as rural area.Considering the great fluctuation of the data before 1977 as well as the high complexity of the process of substitution processes of urban and rural population,this paper focuses on the specific analysis of the allometric process of the population in urban and rural area after 1977.The result indicates that there are two stages during these processes：positive allometric growth phase and rural population decline phase,with the change occurring from the year 1994 to 2000.However,there are differences during these processes.The substitution processes of urban and rural population in Anhui Province and Henan province are about the same,in which the changes of phases occur relatively earlier;Jiangxi Province and Shanxi Province share similar substitution process with changes of phases occurring late;Hunan Province witnesses slight fluctuations at the stage when the change has shown while Hubei Province witnesses a comparatively strong one.The result theoretically validates that allometric process of the population in urban and rural area have a feature which can keep the dimension unchanged.Practically the result proves that the six provinces in middle China have entered into the rural population qualitative decline phase.