基于危害风险评价的高速公路紧急事件分级

Classification of Highway Emergencies Based on Risk Evaluation

在紧急事件机理分析的基础上,对高速公路交通紧急事件进行了界定。阐述了高速公路交通紧急事件危害风险分级的关键影响因素,建立了以事件严重性、路网脆弱性、应急处置难度和影响扩大效应等影响因素为主的高速公路交通紧急事件危害风险评测框架体系,给出了各项评价指标的定义及量化标准。综合运用层次分析、聚类分析等算法确定指标权重,构建了高速公路紧急事件危害风险多级模糊评价模型,并结合事发时的特定环境条件,综合评价事件危害的风险等级。

Highway traffic emergencies are defined on the basis of emergency mechanism analysis.Key factors influencing the risk rating of highway emergencies are elaborated.The risk evaluation framework of highway traffic emergencies is established.The influencing factors,such as incident severity,road network vulnerability and treatment difficulty of emergencies,possess main functions in the model.Meanwhile,the definition and quantitative criteria of each evaluation index are given.The weight of each index is determined by the comprehensive application of AHP and cluster analysis.A model is set up according to hierarchical fuzzy decisions for highway traffic emergency hazards risk rating method.The risk rating of incidents is comprehensively assessed,considering the specific environmental conditions when the incidents occur.