湖南省自然灾害损失变化趋势模型研究

Trend model of natural disaster loss change in Hunan Province

湖南是我国自然灾害最严重的地区之一。研究湖南重大自然灾害的规律,对建立湖南防灾减灾综合管理体系具有重大的理论意义和现实意义。根据1980-2007年湖南省灾害统计数据,运用统计分析方法和傅立叶级数方法建立了灾害损失时间序列模型,研究了湖南自然灾害发生的时间和地域分布特征,以及所造成的受灾耕地面积和直接经济损失的发展趋势。结果表明,虽然近3年中湖南自然灾害的发生频率和造成的损失有所下降,但整体上依然呈现增长的趋势。

Hunan Province is one of the most serious areas of natural disasters in China.It has great theoretical and practical significance to study the laws of natural disasters in order to establish the disaster prevention and reduction management system.According to the disaster statistics of Hunan Province from 1980 to 2007,time distribution characters of natural disasters in Hunan Province were researched by statistical analysis methods and the change trend of area of arable land and direct economic losses caused by the natural disasters were studied by Fourier series methods,too.The results show that although the frequency and the losses of natural disasters all has some decreases in the last three years,but the overall trend is still growing in Hunan Province.