供给因素对我国物价变动影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Effect of Supply Factors on Price Change in China

本文运用状态空间模型和向量误差修正模型,实证研究了供给因素对物价变动的影响,结论表明:原材料成本对物价变动的影响最为显著,工资次之,物价预期的影响非常微弱。通过脉冲响应函数,我们发现物价水平对原材料成本冲击的反应最为敏感,并且工资、原材料成本和物价预期的冲击对物价水平都具有较长的持久效应。

Using state space model and vector error correction model,this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the effect of supply factors on price change in china. Conclusion：raw material cost has the most significant impact on price changes. Wage plays a secondary role on price change,and the effect of price expectation is relatively weak. Through impulse response function,we also find that the price level is most sensitive to the impact of raw material cost. Furthermore,wage,raw material cost and price expectation also have a longer lasting effect on the price level.