云南林区森林火灾重灾年景对北太平洋海温异常变化响应规律的研究

Study on responsive disciplinarian of serious forest fire annuity in YunNan forestry area to abnormal variation in ocean temperature in north Pacific abstract

根据云南１９５３～１９９０年的森林火灾统计数据和北太平洋２８６个格点自１９５１～１９９０年历年逐月实测数据，运用异常度分析技术，对云南林区的森林火灾重灾年景的当年及前后各３年北太平洋海温异常变化的基本规律及时相进行了研究，发现云南林区出现森林火灾重灾年景的前一年４～１２月时段，太平洋赤道附近海域（１０°Ｓ～１０°Ｎ，８０°～１８０°Ｗ）具有明显的持续低温，并得出该部分海域在云南森林火灾重灾年景前一年的８～９月份异常度指数≤－１５０，信度可达９３％的结论。

The study on basic disciplinarian of abnormal ocean temperature variation which appeared in the same year as well as the last and next three years when serious woody fire happened in YunNan forestry area which lie in west-south in China was done using analytical technology of abnormal degree according to statistic data of forest fire in YunNan from 1953 to 1990 and actual measurable data of 286 grids in North Pacific in every month annual from 1951 to 1990.Thus the conclusion was drawn that there was a property of continues low temperature in sea area near the Equator in the period from April to December and abnormal degree was not more than -15 and reliability was up to 93%.