基于非集计模型的居民出行方式选择行为研究

Study of Travel Mode Choice Behavior Based on Disaggregate Model

基于ML模型的基本理论与建模方法,利用2009年济南市居民出行调查数据,对影响城市居民出行方式选择的因素进行了分析,确定了影响居民出行方式选择的特性变量,建立了居民出行方式选择ML模型.研究结果表明:居民出行方式选择与个人属性、家庭属性和出行属性之间有较稳定的关系,通过对影响居民出行方式选择的可控影响因素进行引导和调整,可以达到优化和调整交通方式结构的目的.

Based on the theory of Multinomial Logit Model（ML）and its modeling method,referring to the urban resident trip investigation data of Jinan in 2009,focused on analyzing factors which influence choice of travel mode,characteristic variables affecting mode choice were determined and urban residents travel mode choosing model was developed finally.The result shows that there are stable relations between travel mode choice and personal characteristics,family characteristics and trip characteristics.Through the guidance and adjustment of controllable factors which can affect the resident travel mode choice,the purpose of optimizing and adjusting urban trip mode structure can be achieved.