闽南地区冰雹的雷达回波特征统计分析和临近预报

Statistic Analysis and Nowcasting of Hail-Echo in Southern Fujian

本文利用2005～2008年多普勒雷达回波资料，从中挑选出有冰雹实况的回波产品资料进行统计分析，结果表明，如果仅从回波强度和高度来判断冰雹云则预报准确率较低，如果同时结合垂直液态含水量（VIL）、回波强核（≥60dbz）的垂直厚度及其持续体扫次数、回波特征等，会使预报准确率明显提高。

Based on the statistic analysis of Doppler radar echo data about the thunderstorm which produced hail weather from 2005 to 2008, the results showed that there will be low accuracy in hail weather prediction only in consideration of the intensity and depth of echo for identification of the clouds with hailstone. However, the prediction accuracy will be improved obviously while combined with other observation products of Doppler radar such as vertically integrated liquid water content （VIL）, strong cores with echo intensity ≥ 60dBZ and their persistence time, echo features, etc.