关中平原近50年来气候生产力的变化及对植物影响研究

Variation of Climate Productivity and its Impact on Plants in Guanzhong Plain for Last 50 Years

根据13个观测站近50a气温和降水的连续数据,运用TharnthwaiteMemo-riai模型,对关中平原地区气候生产力的时空序列进行了分析和预测。结果表明,关中平原气候生产力50a来呈增加趋势,平均每年增长3.7kg·hm-2,而21世纪以来,气候整体呈现暖湿化特征,但暖春化、暖冬化,春旱、秋旱愈来愈严重;降水是气候生产力最主要的限制因子;"暖湿型"气候对植被的生长最为有利,未来若气温升高1℃～2℃,降水量增加10%～20%,则关中植被气候生产力将可能增加7%～14%,而"暖干型"和"冷干型"气候则会导致植被气候生产力下降。

This article used Tharnthwaite Memo-riai model to analysis and forecast climate productivity by sequence of time and space,which was based on data of temperature and precipitation collected from 13 observed stations.And these data cover the recent 50 years.The results showed that climate productivity of the past 50 years presented an increasing trend in Guanzhong Plain,and it increased at the rate of 3.7 kg·hm-2 every year.It was found that the warming and wetting characteristics had appeared in Guanzhong Plain since the 21st century,and the trend of warming in spring,warming in winter,drying in spring and drying in autumn is getting more and more worth.The precipitation is the main limiting factor for climate productivity.Warm and wet climate were favorable to crop production in Guanzhong Plain.If temperature increase 1℃-2℃,precipitation will increase 10%-20% in the future,and the crop climate productivity will increase 7%-14%.Warm and dry climate,cold and dry climate can bring the productivity of crop climate down.