离散Logistic人口增长预测模型研究

Study of Discrete Logistic Model of Population Increasing Prediction

针对人口预测的复杂非线性特点建立了Logistic模型,分析了Logistic方程曲线性质,并研究离散的Logistic模型具有的混沌遍历性,以非线性最小二乘法率定模型参数,用均方根误差等进行模型效果评价,通过实例分析,采用不同方法相互比较,验证了Logistic模型的有效性和适用性.

Aimed at the complexity and nonlinearity of population prediction,a Logistic model is established.The character of Logistic equation curve is analyzed;and the chaotic ergodicity of discrete Logistic model is also studied.Nonlinear least square method is used for model parameter calibration;and the model results is evaluated by root-mean-square error.The proposed model is applied to predict the population and compared with different methods.Validity and applicability of the model are proved.