世界资源格局与展望

Global Resource Structure and Its Perspective

本文阐释了人均能源消费、人均矿产资源消费与人均GDP"S"形规律的内涵,指出发达国家(OECD)能源与重要矿产资源消费已经或正在进入零增长期,资源需求将趋稳或呈缓慢下降趋势,发展中国家已经成为资源消费主体,全球能源与矿产资源需求重心正在向亚洲转移;以石油为例,阐述了国际资源市场体系的演变及其脆弱性,强调发展中国家经济发展的资源成本将呈不断上升态势,低碳经济将推动全球新能源及相关产业快速发展,提出了发展中国家应对国际资源格局变化的相关对策和建议。

This paper explains the connotation of energy consumption per capita,mineral resources consumption per capita and ＂S＂ curve rule of GDP per capita,and points out that energy and main mineral resources consumption in OECD has entered into the stage of zero-growth or has arrived just around the corner,so the resource demands will keep steady or assume a gently downward trend;meanwhile developing countries have become the main body of resources consumption,and the global energy and mineral resources demand center of gravity is moving to Asia.Based on the example of oil resource,this paper describes the evolution and frangibility of the international resources market system,and points out that,as resource cost in economic development will increase continuously,low-carbon economy will promote quick development of new energy industry and related industries in the world.At last,this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for responding to the change of the global resource structure.