中国能源消费“零增长”何时到来

A Prediction on the Time of Realizing Zero Growth of Energy Consumption in China

本文总结了发达国家能源消费"零增长"区域经济社会及能源消费指标的特征,结合中国实际,运用人均能源消费"S"形规律,综合各部门未来能源需求趋势的判断,全面预测了中国未来25年的能源需求。指出中国能源消费"零增长"将在2030-2035年间到来,"零增长"点的能源需求总量将达43.6亿吨油当量,人均能源消费量2.98吨油当量。

This paper sums up index characteristics about economic,social and energy consumption in the ＇zero growth＇ region of the energy consumption in developed countries.In combination with economic and social development,the S-shape rule of per capita energy consumption and per capita GDP is used to projection the China＇s energy demand in the twenty-five years.Synthesized the trend of the sector energy demand,it is concluded that the ＇zero growth＇ of energy demand in China will be reached during the period of 2030 to 2035,when the per capita consumption will amount to 2980 kg and the total consumption will attain 4.3 billion tons.