基于“S”规律的中国钢需求预测

The Prediction of China's Steel Demand Based on S-shaped Regularity

本文基于人均钢消费量与人均GDP"S"形规律,对典型发达国家工业化过程钢消费量峰值年份进行截面分析,并依据我国经济增长发展目标厘定高、参考及低三种方案,解析中国未来钢需求,结论是:按高增长方案,我国人均钢消费峰值点将在2015年到达,届时人均钢消费量480～500千克,消费总量6.7～7亿吨;按参考方案,我国人均钢消费峰值点将在2015-2016年到达,届时人均钢消费量430～470千克,消费总量为6～6.5亿吨;按低增长方案,我国人均钢消费峰值点将在2017-2018年到达,届时人均钢消费量400～440千克,消费总量为5.6～6.1亿吨。

This paper analyzes the peak of the steel consumption in typical developed countries during the process of industrialization in the light of the per capita consumption of the crude steel and per capita GDP S-shape rule.This paper assumes three scenarios based on the actual situation of China＇s economic development environment,i.e.,the high growth scenario,the medium growth scenario and the low growth scenario.It also predicts China＇s steel demand.It is concluded that the per capita consumption of the crude steel will reach 480~500 kg and the total consumption of China＇s crude steel will attain 670~700 million tons according to the high growth scenario.According to the medium growth scenario,the per capita consumption of the crude steel will be 430~470 kg and the total consumption of China＇s crude steel will amount to 600~650 million tons.Under the low growth scenario,the per capita consumption of the crude steel will reach 400~440 kg and the total consumption of China＇s crude steel will be 560~610 million tons.