典型国家部门石油消费轨迹及对中国的启示

An Analysis of Sectorial Oil Consumption Track in Typical Countries and Its Implications to China's Trend

本文通过分析发达国家部门石油消费历史,系统揭示了各部门消费具有如下轨迹:工业、商业和民用部门呈倒"U"形变化,工业部门在人均GDP10000～13000美元到达消费顶点,民用部门顶点出现在人均GDP11000～15000美元,商业则在人均15000～20000美元时到达消费峰值区。交通部门呈"S"形轨迹变化,消费量已占石油总消费的60%,消费顶点对应的人均GDP在20000～22000美元之间;工业-民用-商业-交通各部门消费顶点呈波次性出现。以发达国家石油部门消费轨迹为基础,结合中国消费现状,指出中国各部门石油消费仍沿着发达国家的消费轨迹呈上升趋势;对交通部门的分析表明,发达国家的石油消费模式对中国而言不可持续,必须通过节能降耗、科技创新等有效手段,从根本上转变消费模式,积极走新型发展之路。

Based on the track analysis of the sectorial oil consumption in developed countries,this paper systemically reveals the track of oil consumption in various sectors,i.e.,industrial,commercial and residential sectors,which assume inverted ＂U＂-shaped variations.The oil consumption peaks of the industrial sector are in the range of USD$10000~13000 per capita GDP,the consumption peaks of the residential sector is in the range of $11000-15000,and consumption peaks of the commercial sector is in the range of $15000-20000.The oil consumption of the transportation sector assumes ＂S＂-shaped variation and accounts for 60% of the total oil consumption,and its peak is around $20000~22000 per capita GDP.The consumption peaks of industrial-residential-commercial-transport departments occur in the form of waves.According to the sectorial oil consumption tracks in developed countries in combination with China＇s oil consumption status,this paper holds that China＇s oil consumption sectors will show an upward trend.Also,an analysis of the transportation sector demonstrates that,if China extends the developed countries＇ consumption path,the development will not be sustainable.Therefore,we must convert our development pattern to energy saving,science and technological innovation as soon as possible.