石油期货市场机制及对中国石油安全的影响

An Analysis of Petroleum Futures Market Mechanism and Its Influence on China's Oil Security

本文通过系统分析2003-2008年石油期货市场过度炒作的影响和动因,结合不同历史时期国际石油期货市场机制的演变,指出目前的石油期货市场已由以往的价格发现、平抑油价和规避风险的场所,转变为发达国家和国际大型金融机构借以谋利和制约发展中国家经济社会发展的工具;提出目前的石油市场机制使中国的石油安全乃至经济安全面临严峻的挑战,中国应一方面提高国内企业和金融机构参与国际金融市场交易的能力,积极参与国际石油期货市场交易,以规避价格波动的风险;另一方面加快步伐打造中国的石油期货市场,获得国际石油定价权。

This paper is based on systematic analysis over the impact and motivation of speculation in the oil futures market from 2003 to 2008,combined with the evolution of the international oil futures market mechanism in different historical periods.It points out that the oil futures market at present has been changed from the previous field for price discovery,price control and risk aversion into the means by which developed countries and international large financial institutions make profit and restrain economic and social development of developing countries.It also puts forward the idea that China＇s oil safety and economic security are faced with great challenges due to the current oil market mechanism.On one hand,China should improve domestic enterprises and financial institutions＇ ability to be involved in the international financial market,and take an active part in the international oil futures market to avoid the risk of price fluctuation.On the other hand we should speed up the pace to build China＇s oil futures market to win the pricing right.