中国能源消费强度趋势分析

Trend Analysis of China's Energy Consumption Intensity

本文分析了发达国家农业、工业、交通、商业以及生活五大部门能源消费强度的变化轨迹,探讨了各部门能源消费强度变化的动因。在此基础上,结合中国能源消费强度分析,运用部门能源消费强度法预测了我国一次能源消费强度的变化趋势。研究表明,中国能源消费强度呈现不断下降的趋势,2020年中国能源消费强度将比2005年下降35%。能源消费强度的变化趋势与工业化进程密切相关,调整产业结构和能源结构、提升能源利用效率,是未来中国降低能源消费强度的最有力措施。

This paper deals with the trend of energy consumption intensity in various sectors,which includes agriculture sector,industry sector,transportation sector,commercial sector and residential sector,and probes into the reason for sectoial change in energy consumption intensity of the developed countries.On such a basis,the sectorial energy consumption intensity forecasting method was used to predict China＇s tendency of aggregate energy consumption intensity.The results show that China＇s energy consumption intensity assumes a downward trend in the next 10 years,which is closely related to the process of industrialization.Adjusting the industrial structure and energy structure and improving energy efficiency seem to be the most effective measures to reduce energy consumption intensity in the future.