中国区域碳排放研究

Research on Regional Carbon Emissions in China

通过比较不同机构和学者对中国区域碳排放的测算结果,指出现有测算结果间存在巨大差异的具体原因,按照更加科学准确的方法重新测算了中国各省及中部、东部、西部等主要区域的能源和水泥的碳排放量,以此为基础,通过对比分析,对1990至2008年间不同区域碳排放总量、人均排放量、碳排放强度等重要指标的差异进行了系统分析。研究表明:中国的区域碳排放格局是东部地区排放总量和累计排放量最大,但西部地区排放总量及占全国的份额有逐步增加的趋势;着重指出西部地区作为中国下一轮经济发展最重要的增长点,其目前的人均碳排放量和碳排放强度均高于相同发展阶段的其他地区,如不尽快转变其发展模式,则会使未来的节能减排形势异常严峻,中国的低碳经济之路仍旧任重而道远。

Having compared the estimated results of China＇s regional carbon emissions from different agencies and scholars,this paper points out the reasons for great differences existent between the results measured.The authors measured carbon emissions made by energy and cement in central,eastern,western and other major areas with more scientific and accurate means.Based on the work done,this paper has comparatively analyzed the total emissions,per capita emissions,carbon emission intensity and other important indicators in different regions between 1990 and 2008.The results show that China＇s regional carbon emission pattern is that the total emissions and accumulate emissions in eastern China is the largest,but the total emissions and the share of western China have been gradually increasing.This paper points out that,as China＇s economy is significantly growing,current per capita carbon emissions and carbon intensity in western China are higher than those in other areas at the same development stage.If the development model will not be changed as soon as possible,the future situation of energy saving will become very severe.So China＇s low-carbon economy still has a long way to go.