经济转型期陕北公路交通与经济发展的关联分析

ASSOCIATION ANALYSIS BETWEEN ROAD TRANSPORTATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN SHAANXI IN THE TRANSITION PERIOD

结合陕北公路交通与经济发展的实际,应用1998—2007年度的数据,运用主成分析、相关性、回归模型、弹性分析等方法,对经济转型期陕北公路交通与经济发展效率进行了综合分析评价。结果发现,陕北公路交通与经济发展之间相关度较高,两者之间的最优回归方程可表示为Logistic曲线函数,交通发展指数对经济发展指数的平均弹性系数大体在0.42—0.58之间波动。在综合经济发展过程中,原来较为落后地区的公路交通基础设施与经济发展会逐步趋向协调;公路交通基础设施的改善是经济发展不可缺少的条件之一,但其边际效益会逐渐减小。最后,建议在当前阶段,为实现陕北经济的顺利转型和健康发展,应建设形成多种运输方式协调发展的综合交通运输体系。

Transportation industry, which provide support and guarantee for regional ecomonic development. Researches on association analysis between road transportation and regional economic development attract economists and geographers greatly. This paper reviews current researches on the mutual influence of transportation and economy from different angles both at home and abroad. Then it makes a brief introduction of road transportation and economy in northern Shaanxi, and makes a comprehensive analysis though the principal component analysis, association analysis, regression analysis and elastic analysis. The authors set up subsystems of road transportation development indicators and regional economy development indicators. Through the principal component analysis, original indexes are replaced by road transportation development index and regional economic development index, which are made of linear-weighted new principal components. To determine the degree of linear correlation between road transportation and regional economy in northern Shaanxi, the authors carry out correlation analysis. The result shows that correlation coefficient reaches 0.875, indicating a high correlation between the two development indexes. Correlation analysis is followed by regression analysis. Regression analysis is applied to 11 possible curve models, among which the logistic curve model reveals the highest fitting degree. Then the relation model between road transportation and regional economic development in northern Shaanxi is built up. Furthermore, to measure the sensitivity of the changes in the two indexes, flexible coefficient analysis is conducted. The average coefficient of elasticity of road transportation to economic development varies from 0.42 to 0.58 which can show the trend of coordination development. Finally, the authors suggest that the local government and community should actively conduct road construction in the less developed region, optimize the road network structure, and establish a highly efficient integrated transportation system.