中国流动人口地域类型的划分方法及空间分布特征

Research on Classification Methods and Spatial Patterns of the Regional Types of China's Floating Population

随着中国流动人口规模快速增长和影响日趋深远,各级政府在制订经济社会发展战略、区域与城市规划等各类重大决策时,亟需准确地认识和把握中国流动人口的空间分布特征及不同地域类型。本文在综合比较现有流动人口地域类型划分方法优缺点的基础上,提出了综合考虑净迁移率和总迁移率的复合型指标及其修正方法,并根据中国第五次人口普查分区县的流动人口数据,运用以上多种划分方法实证研制出中国流动人口地域类型的多种划分方案,并进行了比较分析。结果表明:①综合考虑净迁移率和总迁移率的复合指标法,可以同时测度区域流动人口的方向性与活跃度,兼具以上两种单一性指标法的特色和优势,特别是能清晰地分辨出区域流入人口与流出人口的规模均比较大的平衡型活跃区这种独特类型,具有显著的优势。②进一步考虑份额指标的修正型复合指标法,能有效地消除因区域人口总量过小或过大而导致流动人口活跃度被高估或低估的偏差,划分结果更加符合实际。③中国流动人口地域类型的空间分布格局与其自然环境、人口密度及经济社会发展水平的区域差异关系密切。中国各类流动人口活跃区主要分布在位处第三阶梯和大于800 mm等降雨线的东部季风区,其人口密度及经济社会发展水平相对较高。

With the rapid increase of the number and influence of floating population in China,it is urgent to understand the regional types of China＇s floating population and their spatial characteristics.After reviewing the current methods for identifying regional types of floating population,this paper puts forward a new composite-index method and its further modification method consisting of two indexes simultaneously： the net migration rate and gross migration rate.Further,those methods are empirically tested by using China＇s 2000 Census data at county level.The results show：（1） The composite-indexes method is much better than the traditional single-index method because it can measure the migration direction and scale of floating simultaneously and in particular it can identify the unique regional types of floating population with large-scale immigration and emigration.（2） The modified composite-indexes method,by using the share of a region＇s certain type of floating population to the total in China as weight,can effectively correct the over-or under-estimated error due to the rather large or small total population of a region.（3） The spatial patterns of different regional types of China＇s floating population are closely related to regional differentiation of their natural environment,population density and socio-economic development level.The three active regional types of floating population are mainly located in the eastern China with lower elevation,more than 800 mm precipitation,rather than in the region with higher population density and economic development level.