双交通模式的阿朗索模型对中国城市的模拟研究

Urban Equilibrium Model with a Bimodal Transportation System in China

随着中国逐步进入机动化社会,交通拥挤开始困扰中国城市。汽车改变了人们的空间感受尺度,推动了城市郊区化和城市空间重构。交通与城市系统的研究涉及空间分析,国内相关理论研究还较少涉及。本文引入了阿朗索模型族的双交通模型来分析交通模式与城市密度之间的关系,对模型的假设做了进一步的阐述,并提取了中国城市的关键参数来模拟分析中国机动化与城市发展的关系,得到的结果较好地模拟了中国公交城市的规模和密度分布。最后,本文通过敏感性研究定量分析了收入、农业地租、交通价格和交通用地等因素对交通拥挤、城市规模和密度的影响,并得出了相关的政策启示。

With rapid urbanization and motorization,urban transport congestion poses a challenge to the cities in China.Cars have reshaped the urban structure and urbanization progress.As this transport/land use system is involved in distance and space,not much progress has been made in model building.This paper introduces an urban equilibrium model with a bimodal transportation system and analyzes modal choice and modes of urbanization in China.We extract the key parameters from China＇s cities,then make simulating and sensitive analyses based on the model.Moreover,we explain the hypothesis of the model in terms of the impacts of income,land rent,price of transportation and supply of land on transport congestion,city size and density.Finally,based on the results we give some suggestions for policy making.