2006年7—9月的台风季节预报试验

The seasonal forecasting experiment of typhoon from July to September of 2006

运用NCEP/NCAR逐6 h分辨率为2.5°×2.5°GRIB资料,用WRF模式采用水平分辨率为27 km×27 km,垂直38层每6 h输出一次的时空分辨率,对2006年7—9月对西太平洋地区台风为主的天气系统进行季节预报试验。综合低层涡度、地面10 m处风速、海平面气压、暖心结构和持续时间对模式输出资料进行台风生成判定和路径追踪。7月1日—9月30日模拟吻合较好的台风、强热带风暴、热带风暴和热带低压的比例为4/9、1/3、0/1和0/1;模拟较差的比例分别为3/9、1/3、1/1和1/1;漏报率分别为2/9、1/3、0/1和0/1。模拟空报了2个台风、9个强热带风暴和3个热带风暴。模拟台风强度偏弱和吻合较差的原因可能与模式的分辨率、微物理过程参数设置和积分步长有关。空报的台风、强热带风暴可能与模式自身特点、相关海区的特性和热带波动有关。

Based on the NCEP/NCAR data with 6 h time resolution and 2.5°×2.5° horizontal resolution,WRF model of 27×27 km horizontal resolution,which has 38 levels in vertical direction and data output per 6 h,is employed to give a seasonal forecasting experiment for TCs in the Pacific Northwest（NWP） basin.According to low-level vorticity,wind speed at 10 meters,sea level pressure,warm core structure and duration,the generation and tracks of the TCs are determined.From July 1 to September 30,the proportions of well simulated typhoons,STSs,TSs and TDs are 4/9,1/3,0/1,and 0/1,bad simulations account for 3/9,1/3,1/1,1/1,respectively,while missing report rates are 2/9,1/3,0/1,0/1.And 2 typhoons,9 STSs and 3TSs are false predicted.The possible reasons for simulated typhoons＇ weaker intensity and declinational tracks are related to the model＇s resolution,parameter of microphysical processes and integral time.The causes of the false simulated typhoons,STSs and TSs may be explained by the feature of model,integral time,characteristic of the relational sea area and the tropical waves.