个人所得税起征点分析

Research and Analysis of the Threshold of Personal Income Tax

利用类层次分析模型对居民刚性消费支出进行研究,发现中低收入阶层的经济负担日益加重,现行个人所得税的改革不能适应当今社会经济迅速发展的趋势.同时采用统计分析法对个人所得税与人均GDP的关系进行定量和定性的分析,发现个人所得税的收入与国内人均生产总值有密切的联系,并影响人均GDP增长;相反,人均GDP的总量和增长速度也影响着个税收入的发展.又应用协整原理,对人均GDP和人均消费两变量建立经济计量模型,从而确定CPI与GDP的关系,并计算出个人所得税每年增长率,然后利用几何平均值求出个人所得税的历年平均增长率.最后通过滑动增长模型求得个人所得税起征点,并利用非线性拟合预测模型和Lo-gistic模型预测出2009~2018年的个税起征点.

Based on the establishment of rigid class hierarchy model of the residents spend analysis,it can be found that heavy financial burden on low and middle-income strata is increasing.The reform of the current personal income tax can not meet the current socio-economic development.Meanwhile,the statistical analytic method of mathematical analysis of the relationship between per capita GDP and personal income tax is quantitative and qualitative.It is found that the personal income tax revenue has a very close relationship with per capita GDP,and it affects the growth of GDP per capita;in contrast,the total per capita GDP,the income growth rate also affects the development of months.The cooperative principle has been applied to the establishment of economy measurement model of the two variables which are per capita expended and per capita GDP.Thus the annual growth rate of personal income tax can be calculated,and the geometry mean will be used to formula the average growth rate of the personal income tax of all previous years.Finally the threshold of the personal income tax will be got byusing the glide growth model,and the per capita GDP of using nonlinear regression model and the establishment of Logistic model have made successful preparation for the next decade.