中央转移支付与新疆经济增长的实证分析

Central Government Transfer Payments and Economic Growth in Xinjiang

中央转移支付无论是总量还是在新疆经济中所占的比重近几年来都有明显的加速增长势头,尤其是西部大开发政策实施以后,中央转移支付的增长速度已然超过了新疆经济的发展速度。新疆经济的发展离不开外部的帮助、国家的扶植和自身的努力,外商直接投资可以看做外部的帮助,转移支付是国家扶植地方的重要手段,地方财政支出代表自身努力。基于此,结合转移支付、财政支出以及外商直接投资,利用回归和灰色关联的分析方法,综合分析了分税制改革后它们对新疆经济的影响,研究发现它们对新疆经济都具有促进作用。回归后发现转移支付和财政支出对新疆经济增长的贡献比较大,而外商直接投资的作用并没有充分显现。运用灰色关联研究后发现非生产性财政支出与新疆经济关联性最大,其次是生产性财政支出和转移支付,最后是外商直接投资。通过了解这种影响模式,为引导今后新疆经济发展提供一种思路。

The central transfer payments whether total or in the proportion of the Xinjiang economy, has significantly accelerated growth in recent years. Especially after the implementation of western development policy, the central transfer payments already exceeded the speed of economic development in Xinjiang. Xinjiang＇s economy can not develop without outside help, the country＇s support and their own efforts.Foreign direct investment can be seen as outside help. While transfer payments are an important means of national support .And local fiscal expenditure is on behalf of their own efforts. Combination of transfer payments, expenditure and foreign direct investment, using regression and gray relational analysis method, analysize the comprehensive affect on Xinjiang economy and found that has promoted it after the tax system reforms. Regression revealed that expenditure and transfer payments have relatively larger contribution to economic growth in Xinjiang, while the role of foreign direct investment has not fully revealed. Using Gray found that non-productive expenditure has greatest impact on the economy of Xinjiang, followed by transfer payments and productive expenditure, finally foreign direct investment. By understanding the pattern of this impact, it will provide an idea to guide future economic development in Xinjiang.