基于噪声场合下ARMA模型的风力发电量预测

Prediction of wind power generation based on ARMA with additive noise model

针对普通的ARMA模型的预测质量由于各种原因会大大降低的情况,依据富锦风电场风力发电量的时间序列,基于HOYW定阶方法建立了噪声场合下的ARMA模型。通过对模型残差白噪声性能的分析,验证了模型的适用性。应用此模型进行了预测分析,得到的归一化平均绝对误差(NMAE)为0.0658。通过与普通的ARMA模型预测精度方面的对比,进一步验证了噪声场合下基于ARMA模型风力发电量预测的优越性。

Because of a mass of factors,forecast quality of ordinary ARMA model will be greatly reduced.Aiming at the condition,the time series of wind power generation from the Fujin Wind Farm located in China and HOYW-based order dertermining method are used to build ARMA with additive noise model.Model applicability is verified by the analysis of the residual error.Applying this new model to predict,the Normalized Mean Absolute Error（NMAE） is 0.065 8.Then,the superiority of the new ARMA model is verified during the comparison with the ordinary ARMA model in accuracy of wind power generation prediction.