人口扰动下的陕西省人口老龄化发展趋势研究

Study on the Trend of Population Ageing in Shanxi in Presence of Population Disturbance

非正常因素导致的新增人口背离正常规律的波动,称为人口扰动。以人口扰动为切入点,分析陕西省人口年龄结构的非正常波动,借鉴人口再生产惯性理论构建人口扰动模型,测定人口波动规律,判断人口老龄化进程与人口扰动的关系。陕西省青年、老年人口规模均呈现出周期波动特征,两组人口波动周期相近,青年人口波动振幅略高于老年;波峰波谷交错出现;陕西省人口老龄化将以100年左右为周期波动。人口扰动引起的人口老龄化问题,仅靠社会保障、就业促进制度的完善难以彻底解决,必须依靠人口政策的调整来解决。

Population disturbance is the fluctuation in population,which is caused by irregular factors.There are two baby booms in china during 1953-1957,1963-1972.Under the introduction of population disturbance factors,this paper gives the analysis on the age structure of shannxi population.Base on population repopulation model,discusses the relation between population disturbance and population Ageing.The author found that the trend of shannxi youth population and the elderly population is fluctuate with the years.There is a similar wave period in changes of youth population and the elderly population.Amplitude of youth population is a light higher than that of elderly population.The wave period in changes of population aging is about 100 years.It is concluded that aging population problem caused by the disturbance cannot be solved by the promotion of social security system and the system of employment.This problem can only be solved by the population policy reform.