模拟蟹肉中金黄色葡萄球菌生长预测模型的研究

Study on the predictive model of Staphylococcus aureus in simulated crab meat

运用预测食品微生物学的方法研究了10～42℃模拟蟹肉中金黄色葡萄球菌的生长规律,建立了初级生长模型和二级预测模型。结果表明,在选取的3种拟合模型(Gompertz模型、Logistic模型、Linear模型)中,在低温阶段,适用线性回归方程Linear模型拟合;在适温阶段,生长曲线都呈典型的S形,适合用Gompertz模型拟合。模拟蟹肉中金黄色葡萄球菌的二级预测模型符合平方根方程的扩展式Ratkowsky3式,根据此预测模型,得出模拟蟹肉中金黄色葡萄球菌的最低生长温度Tmin为3.8℃,最高生长温度为Tmax44.1℃,最适生长温度为37.5℃。经模型验证,预测值和实测值的残差都在±0.01范围内,模型具有可靠性。

The growth law of Staphylococcus aureus in simulated crab meat from 10℃ to 42℃ were studied by using food predictive microbiology and the primary and secondary growth predictive model were established. The results showed that among the three selected fitting model （Gompertz model, Logistic model, Linear model）, linear regression equation, Linear model was applied to fit at low-temperature, the growth curve were all typical S-type at proper temperature, and the Gompertz model was optimum. The secondary growth model. of Staphylococcus aureus in simulated crab meat were accord with the expansion equation of square root, Ratkowsky3, according to this model, the minimum temperature for the growth of Staphylococcus aureus in simulated crab meat was 3.8 ℃, the highest growth temperature was 44.1 ℃, the optimum growth temperature was 37.5 ℃. Validation of the models showed that the residual difference of predicted and observed value was within ±0.01, The predictive models are reliable.