能源相对价格、技术进步与出口规模增长

Relative Energy Price,Technology Progress and Export Volume Growth

现存文献已经证明中国的能源消费对中国出口贸易有重要的影响,但是对能源价格对出口影响研究的并不多,本文从理论和实证角度分析了中国的能源价格和出口量之间为什么同方向变化。分析表明,中国的能源价格是通过技术进步和国内外能源价格差来影响中国出口量变化的,实证结果也证实了理论分析的结论。实证结果表明,技术进步对出口量的长期影响为正,而国内外能源的相对价格对出口量的影响为负。

The existing literatures have proven that China′s energy consumption indeed has great effect on China′s export.However,the impact of energy prices on exports is not clear.This article analyses the relationship between China′s energy prices and export volumes from the perspective of theory and empirical aspect and wants to find the reason why China′s energy price and export volume changed in the same direction which is not that case in commonsense.We found that the factors lie in TFP(total factor productivity) and RPE(relative energy price).And the empirical results also confirmed the conclusions of theoretical analysis.The empirical results show that the technological advances(measured by TFP) has a long-term impact on the export volume,which is positive,while the relative price of domestic and international energy also has a long-term impact on export volume,which is negative.